Modeling hazardous materials risks for different train make-up plans

This paper is concerned with the problem of how to place hazardous material cars in the train assembly process so that the overall derailment risk can be minimized. The approach considers both the probability of railway cars derailing en route by position as well as the risk associated with additional operations in the rail yard using recent US FRA data. The merits of this car placement model are illustrated through a case study of a railway corridor that connects Los Angeles (CA) to Chicago (IL). The case study demonstrates that the proposed risk minimization strategy could be implemented with minimal rail yard operation cost.     

Supply Chain Management Competency and Firm Financial Success

Supply chain management (SCM) plays a major role in creating (or destroying) shareholder value by influencing the three major drivers of firm financial performance: revenue, operating costs, and working capital. Yet, the relationship between SCM competency and firm financial performance is not well‐established. Drawing on the resource‐based view of the firm, this study assesses this relationship using Delphi‐style opinion data from AMR Research’s Supply Chain Top 25 rankings to assess SCM competency and Altman’s (1968) Z‐score statistic as the measure of financial success. The study findings show that firms recognized by industry experts for SCM competency have significantly higher Z‐scores than their close competitors and industry averages.     

Operating performance of European bank mergers

With very few exceptions the accepted viewpoint established by (predominantly) US research is that bank operating performance is not improved after merger. In this article we concentrate on European banks and investigate post-merger operating performance for 35 publicly listed bank mergers that were completed between 1992 and 1997. We find that industry-adjusted mean cash flow return did not significantly change after merger but stayed positive. We also find that the merger led to a significant decrease in profitability and capitalisation. Our key finding, in contrast to the US evidence, is that cost-efficiency ratios improved, although the improvement was not large enough to offset the profitability decrease. We also find that low profitability levels, conservative credit policies and good cost-efficiency status before merger are the main determinants of industry-adjusted cash flow returns and provide the source for improving these returns after merger.     

A cross-cultural study of the persuasive effect of fear appeal messages in cigarette advertising: China and Canada

This exploratory study investigated the moderating influence of culture on the persuasive power of fear appeal advertisements differing on type of fear. The conceptual framework for the study was based on Rogers' Protection Motivation model and incorporated type of fear, physical and social, as an independent variable and culture as a moderating variable. An experiment was conducted on a sample of 173 Anglo-Canadian and 180 Chinese subjects. The findings revealed that the physical threat ads had a much greater effect on the Anglo subjects than on the Chinese. Most importantly, these ads brought about an attitude change for the Anglos, but not for the Chinese. For the social fear ads, contrary to predictions, only the Anglos reacted to the ads. They tended to score higher than the Chinese on attitude towards smoking as well as on behavioural intentions.     

Offshoring Professional Services: Institutions and Professional Control

We examine the reasons why one might expect it to be more difficult to offshore professional work than manufacturing work in a globalized world. We then provide data on the variations in a specific case — the offshoring of diagnostic radiology from the USA, UK and Singapore. We show that existing theories on the ‘offshorability’ of jobs have not captured how national institutions and occupational regulations continue to define professional work. We then review the question of supply from India's perspective and report that both macro‐institutional and organizational contexts make it complicated for Indian doctors to supply much of this service.     

The Integration of Mortgage and Capital Markets in Emerging Economies—Evidence from South Africa

Integration of the capital and mortgage markets is an important step in moving emerging countries toward full economic development. With data from South Africa, this research examines the incremental contribution of deregulation and the secondary mortgage market to the integration between the mortgage and capital markets. With deregulation occurring in the early 1980s, the results indicate that the two markets were fully integrated prior to 2001 when a secondary mortgage market was introduced in South Africa. However, we also find that the introduction of the secondary mortgage market has significantly reduced constraints on the supply of mortgage credit.     

Measuring the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets: Conventional and Bayesian approaches

Estimating the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid‐ask spreads are usually not observed. Based on an ability to reflect simulated data from Roll's spread model, we assess the effectiveness of conventional and Bayesian bid‐ask spread estimators under different market conditions. Conventional serial covariance and absolute price change spread estimators appear to be biased. Hasbrouck's Bayesian estimator generates small costs of liquidity whose values depend on the correlation and noise in the data. The absolute value Bayesian estimator is precise and works well under conditions of high levels of noise and correlation usually found in agricultural futures markets. Using data from live cattle (LC) and lean hog (LH) contracts, we find similar patterns of performance that produce economically meaningful cost of liquidity differences.     

Pflegeberatung ist Vertrauenssache

M?ngeln in der h?uslichen Pflege pr?ventiv begegnen – Vertrauen ohne Kontrolle, Routine, überforderung oder das Nichtbeachten des Beziehungsgeflechtes zwischen Pflegenden und Gepflegten führt oft zu Problemen. Der Gesetzgeber verpflichtete deshalb die Pflegekassen und Tr?gerverb?nde von ambulanten Pflegeeinrichtungen zur Erarbeitung von Richtlinien und standardisierten Verfahren für die Pflegefachberatung. Leider gibt es bislang keine verbindliche Umsetzung.     

Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements

This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate conditional and unconditional density forecasts, in addition to checks for root-mean-squared errors and event probabilities associated with these forecasts. The checks are implemented on a three-equation DSGE model as well as the Smets and Wouters (2007) model using real-time data. We find that the additional features incorporated into the Smets–Wouters model do not lead to a uniform improvement in the quality of density forecasts and prediction of comovements of output, inflation, and interest rates.